John Teixeira's Best Bets for College Football Week 5
- John Teixeira
- Oct 1, 2021
- 2 min read
These are my picks that I have the most confidence in this week for college football. There are a lot of good lines out there, but I have narrowed it down to what I believe to be the best four plays for this upcoming week. Best of luck if you tail!
Iowa #5 (-3.0) @ Maryland: Under 47.5
There are multiple bets I like in this game, but I think my favorite is the under of 47.5 points. Both of these teams operate on defense. Iowa’s offensive success rate is near dead last in CFB and I do not believe in their offense to get it going especially with how good Maryland’s run defense has been. Maryland being at home is definitely a plus as I believe their morale and excitement will go up welcome a top 5 ranked team. Iowa would have hit the under in this game, 47.5, in all their games this season and the most points they have put up has been against Kent State in week 3 with 30 points. I also like Iowa ML and Iowa -3.0 but if I had to pick one play for Iowa/Maryland it would be u47.5.
Houston @ Tulsa (-3.5): Houston +3.5
When Vegas gives you points on a better team, take the points. My play here is easy; Houston +3.5. They are the better team. Not sure how we have arrived at Tulsa being a favorite, probably for playing Ohio St. “closer than expected” but nonetheless we are here. Houston has the better defense, and quarterback which gives them the edge for me against a 1-3 Tulsa team that has not proved much this season. Since 2014, Houston has only lost once to Tulsa and have beaten them by an average of 11.2 points.
Memphis (-11.0) @ Temple: Memphis -11.0
Memphis’ offense will just be too overpowering. They are one of the most explosive and consistent offenses in CFB averaging 38 points and around 440 yards of total offense this season. Coincidentally, the Temple Owls defense gives up an average of 38 points per game. Their offense is no better, putting up just 3 points against Boston College and 14 points against Rutgers. Their last two matchups, a loss to Boston College in week 3 and a win against Wagner in week 4, were against teams that prioritize running the ball and opt for a slower pace of play. This is not Memphis. They will get up early and stay up.
Oklahoma #6 (-12.0) @ Kansas State: Kansas State +12.0
This comes down to Oklahoma and Spencer Rattler not being able to put points on the board. They average only 26 points per game which is relatively atrocious for this offense and for the Big 12 as a conference. They rank 79th in offensive touchdowns and, although undefeated, they have won by an average of 5 points (when they play real opponents, their 76-0 W against Western Carolina does not count), which gives K State and their points immaculate odds. Kansas State has won outright the last two times these teams have played, so in terms of this specific matchup they have the momentum, and the home field advantage.
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