The Broncos' Paths to a Quarterback

In his first free agency as Broncos’ general manager, George Patton seemed to make all the right decisions regarding roster construction. He was able to ink All-Pro safety Justin Simmons to a long-term deal, re-sign Von Miller, Shelby Harris, and Kareem Jackson while adding new pieces on the defensive side in cornerbacks Ronald Darby and All-Pro Kyle Fuller. Before free agency began, the Broncos were rumored to bring in a veteran quarterback to give Drew Lock some competition this upcoming season. Still, as time went on and more veteran quarterbacks signed elsewhere, the Broncos seemed to have ultimately dismissed any notion of bringing in “veteran competition.” The same three quarterbacks that ended the season on the Broncos’ roster remain today: Drew Lock, Brett Rypien, and Jeff Driskel. Names like Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and even Mitchell Trubisky have all floated around as ideas for potential signings in Denver, but eventually, all these players signed or got traded elsewhere. Patton is a smart guy and a damn good general manager, so it is hard for me to believe he would leave free agency empty-handed on a quarterback if he did not have a plan to either trade for a veteran quarterback later on or select a quarterback in this year’s draft. Although Drew Lock remains an option and a fan-favorite option, I will solely be discussing how the Broncos could take a quarterback and not why taking a quarterback is the “better” or “worse” option; I will leave that up to the reader.

The 2021 NFL Draft has the potential to be one of the strangest drafts in recent history. The most quarterbacks taken in the first round of any NFL Draft happened in 1983 when six signal-callers came off the board in the first round alone. The next highest and most recent number of quarterbacks taken in the first round happened in 2018 when five came off the board, with four of the five being gone after ten picks. The 2021 draft seems like it will follow suit with 1983 and 2018, where it is projected that five quarterbacks will be taken in the first half of the first round or sooner. In this year’s draft, the top five quarterbacks go as follows: Trevor Lawrence from Clemson, Zach Wilson from BYU, Justin Fields from Ohio State, Trey Lance from North Dakota State, and Mac Jones from Alabama. In a usual draft cycle, QB #5 is usually seen as a day-two selection. However, it seems as if this year’s QB #5 will be taken within the top 10 draft selections. The abundance of QB-needy teams paired with the lack of “blue-chip” talent on the offensive and the defensive line has created a draft board that is more than generous for quarterbacks. If teams want to select one, they will either have to possess an early pick or be willing to trade up with a non-QB-needy team. All this to say that even with the #9 overall pick, the Broncos are nowhere near guaranteed one of the top five quarterbacks. If the Broncos see their franchise quarterback in this year’s draft, they will undoubtedly have to trade up. Let’s analyze some of the possible options that would grant the Broncos a quarterback with their first overall selection.

Option #1: Trade with the Atlanta Falcons for the Fourth Overall Pick

Potential Trade: Denver sends: #9, #40, and a 2022 first round pick for Atlanta’s #4 pick.

Two firsts and a second to move up five spots for a quarterback is not too bad of a deal for the Broncos. However, I expect the rest of the QB-needy teams to make even more aggressive offers for the Falcons’ pick. In addition to the Broncos, the Lions (#7), Panthers (#8), and Patriots (#15) all are in play for a trade-up with Atlanta. Other QB-needy teams such as Washington (#19) and Chicago (#20) are also in play for a trade-up but seeing how far down these teams are in the draft, moving up would take a king’s ransom to move up, which is something I do not think either team is willing to do. I would rule out a potential Panthers Falcons trade simply due to them being in the same division. I doubt the Falcons will want to hand over a franchise quarterback to their division rival. I also think we can rule out a Lions trade up as the Bengals (#5) and the Dolphins (#6) hold the picks between them and the Falcons. Both the Bengals and the Dolphins seem pretty dead set on staying where they are (something I will detail later on), making it unlikely for a team behind the Lions to jump them in the quarterback sweepstakes. Additionally, the Lions have more needs than just QB. Their receiver room is underwhelming, and they have positional needs on most of the defensive side. Jared Goff is still under contract with them, and I doubt they will want to trade up for QB #4 when I expect them to finish pretty poorly (worse than the #7 overall pick) in the upcoming seasons. That leaves the Broncos and the Patriots as suitors for a potential trade with the Atlanta Falcons. Now let’s look at the Patriots, who, in my opinion, have the most enticing package for the Falcons.

Bill Belichick this offseason has been the most aggressive we have seen him yet. Signing a slew of offensive playmakers but making no notable moves in the quarterback market after re-signing Cam Newton to a one-year incentive-based contract. Bill has built this team to win. But Cam is nowhere near the quarterback he once was, and the belief is that he cannot elevate this team to playoff contention. Here’s where the trade comes in. The Patriots view themselves as having genuinely nothing to lose in terms of draft capital. They rarely hit on first-rounders anyways, and Belichick constructed this roster to win now. Although moving up from #15 to #4 is a tall task, I believe the Patriots will view giving up three first-round picks and a few day two picks worthy of selecting their future, especially with an experienced and capable roster. The Falcons will undoubtedly take the “best” offer no matter where they end up at the end of the day. Their primary needs (EDGE and linebacker) will be more worth the selection the further they trade down, meaning that trading back 11 spots while gaining two or three additional first-round selections is not a bad deal whatsoever. Simply put, the Broncos will be outbid. I do not expect Patton to overpay for a quarterback, especially if the guys they want are no longer on the board.

Option #2: Trade with the Cincinnati Bengals for the Fifth Overall Pick

Potential Trade: Denver sends: #9, #40, and a 2022 first round pick for Cincinnati’s #5 and #149 picks.

Out of all the possible trades laid out for the Broncos, I think one with the Bengals is the least likely scenario. With a huge offensive tackle need and Joe Burrow’s recent petition to draft former LSU teammate WR Ja’Marr Chase, the Bengals have too much to lose if they trade down. Again, the Broncos would have to give up a king’s ransom for the Bengals even to consider moving down, which is something I do not think George Patton is willing to do. I honestly think Broncos fans can dismiss the idea of trading up with the Bengals (#5) or Dolphins (#6) because they seem like they are locked in exactly where they want to be in the draft.

Option #3: Stay at #9 and see how the Board Falls

Draft after draft, the NFL media is always in a scramble trying to decipher trades and possible sections, sometimes months before draft day when eventually there is little to no movement in the draft at all. Teams fall in love with prospects as time goes on, and they become more comfortable selecting where they were initially slotted. Although unlikely, I can see a scenario where a quarterback falls to Denver at nine overall; here is how this scenario would go.

#1: Jaguars select QB Trevor Lawrence

#2: Jets select QB Zach Wilson

#3: 49ers select QB Mac Jones

#4: Falcons select TE Kyle Pitts

#5: Bengals select WR Ja’Marr Chase

#6: Dolphins select WR Jaylen Waddle

#7: Lions select WR DaVonta Smith

#8: Panthers select OT Penei Sewell

In a scenario where no teams trade into the top ten for a quarterback, it is pretty easy to get not only one but two quarterbacks to fall to Denver at #9 (in this case, Trey Lance and Justin Fields). The key here is getting Penei Sewell to fall to the Panthers, who have had a revolving door at left tackle ever since Jordan Gross retired in 2014. I think the only player that the Panthers would select over a quarterback would be Sewell, and even if they did take a quarterback, there would still be one left over for the Broncos at #9, in this scenario, of course. For Sewell to drop that far would be considered a miracle, as the Falcons, Bengals, Dolphins, and Lions could all realistically take him despite their more pressing needs. I ultimately think that this is the best scenario if the Broncos were to look for their future in the draft. The ability to take a quarterback at nine overall without giving up any assets in the process would be incredible.