Coming off devastating, and honestly quite annoying, loses to divisional opponents, both the Jaguars and the Dolphins have lots to prove to the NFL tonight on Thursday Night Football. Today, I am going to be analyzing this matchup trying to make sense of these two entertaining yet confusing teams. I will also be talking briefly about the fantasy implications this matchup holds for your lineups and will be providing insight on the betting aspect of this game for all my readers who are currently in gambling debt. Minshew vs. Fitzmagic. Primetime football. What more could you ask for?
THE JAGS ARE WEARING ALL TEAL
That’s it, that is the article. In all seriousness the Jags will be hosting the Dolphins tonight in Jacksonville debuting an all teal uniform combo which, in somehow some way, will affect the outcome of this game. Like I mentioned in the intro blurb, both of these teams are coming off three point loses to divisional rivals, tough blows especially when the teams they lost to will most likely end up winning their division. Despite their losses, both the Dolphins and Jaguars looked poised and energized against two of the tougher defenses in the Bills and the Titans. Minshew and Fitzpatrick both aired it out for over 300 yards with Minshew throwing three touchdowns to Fitzpatrick’s two. These quarterbacks will truly be the gamechangers tonight as both teams are not touting the most impressive running room at the moment. The game will be won through the air and there is no denying that.
How injuries will affect this game.
Key Dolphins’ free agent signee Byron Jones is listed as OUT tonight (groin/Achilles) which is an absolutely devastating blow to this otherwise stacked defensive backfield. Minshew will most certainly target Jones’ replacement early and often. Do not be surprised to see Minshew spread out his targets to receivers Keelan Cole and Laviska Shenault with WR1 D.J. Chark listed as out for tonight’s game. If you read my fantasy start/sit write up earlier this week, you would know that I have high hopes for Laviska this week. I would not be surprised if we saw lots of hybrid and wildcat looks centering around getting the ball in Laviska’s hands and letting him work. Another key injury is to Jaguars’ star kicker Josh Lambo. Lambo, who is a perfect 3/3 on field goals this season, will not suit up and instead rookie Brandon Wright will take the starting role. Expect to see the Jaguars become a little more aggressive on the Dolphins’ side of the field, potentially opting for riskier fourth down conversion attempts rather than going for a long field goal at the leg of their rookie.
How can the Jaguars win?
Easy answer? Contain Gesicki. Last week against the Bills, Fitz looked to tight end Mike Gesicki 11 times, with Gesicki hauling in eight of those targets for 130 yards and a touchdown. Absolute monster of a performance. Last week the Jaguars let Titans’ tight end Jonnu Smith dominate for 84 yards and two touchdown receptions on only four catches including a 63-yard reception on the first play from scrimmage. Obviously the Jags have an issue guarding the tight end position, which most certainly cannot be solved in a matter of a couple days. However, if the Jaguars want to stop Fitzpatrick from getting into a groove, they need to limit Geisicki’s production.
How can the Dolphins win?
Make Minshew make mistakes. So far Gardner has thrown six touchdowns to only two interceptions, both coming off of tipped passes last week against the Titans, insanely efficient for a sophomore quarterback on an otherwise bad team. The Dolphins are going to have to throw every blitz they have at him, call some coverages that will confuse him, make him force throws. Minshew’s aggressiveness could very easily lead to an air barrage for four quarters, but the Dolphins should be able to dial up enough pressure to at least force Minshew into some tough looks.
Fantasy Outlook
Like I mentioned on my “Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em” write up, I expect Laviska to have a breakout game. Read more here on why. Fitzpatrick and Minshew are projected 17.8 and 19.9 points (ESPN Standard) respectively which, in my opinion, are projections a little on the conservative side. This will truly be a pass heavy game with both defenses being lackluster through the air and with both offenses having considerable weapons that can easily produce double digit fantasy outings. Start Minshew unless you have Mahomes, Lamar, or Dak. With Chark confirmed as out, Keelan Cole and Laviska Shenault are great flex options. On the Dolphins side, Gesicki is a great start with the Jaguars recent struggles against the tight end position.
Betting Outlook
The Jaguars enter this game as three-point favorites, higher than the opening line of negative two and a half points. If the Jags are going to win, it will be most certainly be by more than three points. Josh Lambo being out makes the spread even more appealing in that the Jaguars are going to game plan in an effort to not put the game into the hands of their rookie kicker. If you believe the Jaguars are going to win this one, HAMMER Jaguars (-3.0). In terms of the o/u, it is currently set at 48.5, rising from the opening o/u of 44.0. Both the Dolphins’ and the Jaguars’ game hit that over (48.5) easily last week even when playing tougher defenses. These teams like to score, and the bettors proved that this game will go over with their early hammers of the over 44.0. I think the over is pretty safe but TNF has given us stinkers before in terms of scoring so I honestly would not be surprised if this game did not even reach 40 points.
FINAL PREDICTION: Jaguars 27 Dolphins 23
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